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admin March 22, 2018

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Tropical Low developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Milingimbi to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am ACST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 9.8 degrees South, 136.0 degrees East , 280 kilometres north northwest of Nhulunbuy and 285 kilometres north northeast of Milingimbi .
Movement: slow moving .

A tropical low is developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea. While the tropical low will be near stationary initially, it is expected to turn eastwards, towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, during Thursday before taking a more southeasterly path on Friday.


GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however, gales could develop between Milingimbi and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy during Friday.

Recommended Action:

NTES advises communities under Watch:

– Prepare your home, yard and family for a cyclone, finalise your emergency kit;
– Decide NOW where you will shelter – at home, with friends or family, or a public shelter, where available;
– If you plan to leave the area, leave while it is safe to do so.


Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 am March 22 tropical low 9.8S 136.0E 110
+6hr 10 am March 22 tropical low 9.9S 136.1E 135
+12hr 4 pm March 22 tropical low 9.9S 136.4E 155
+18hr 10 pm March 22 tropical low 10.0S 136.9E 180
+24hr 4 am March 23 tropical low 10.1S 137.3E 200
+36hr 4 pm March 23 1 10.7S 138.5E 240
+48hr 4 am March 24 2 11.8S 139.8E 275
+60hr 4 pm March 24 2 13.0S 140.6E 310
+72hr 4 am March 25 3 14.0S 140.6E 345

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