Latest Warnings and Alerts For Tropical Cyclone Nora
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Tropical Cyclone Nora located over land near Kowanyama is weakening as it moves southwards.
Warning zone: Karumba to Cape Keerweer.
Watch zone: NT/Qld Border to Karumba, including Mornington Island.
Cancelled zones: Aurukun to Cape Keerweer.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nora at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South, 141.7 degrees East , 9 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama and 55 kilometres south of Pormpuraaw .
Movement: south at 19 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Nora, Category 2, is tracking southwards over land near the western Cape York Peninsula coast and is located near Kowanyama. The system is expected to continue moving south or southsoutheast over land and weaken to Category 1 this morning before weakening further to a tropical low later today or tonight near the southwestern base of Cape York Peninsula if it stays over land. However, the cyclone may move south along the coast during the day and weaken at a slower rate than expected.
If the cyclone remains on its current track and weakens to a tropical low, it is likely to move back over water in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria late Monday or on Tuesday, where it may reintensify briefly to a Category 1 cyclone.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced in coastal areas within 130 kilometres of cyclone centre between Cape Keerweer and Gilbert River Mouth, this morning. Gales may extend south between Gilbert River Mouth and Karumba, including adjacent inland parts, during the day, depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens.
GALES may redevelop between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, on Monday night or early Tuesday, if the cyclone moves back over water and redevelops.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour within 55 kilometres of cyclone centre currently being experienced in coastal areas between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River Mouth are expected to ease in the next few hours.
HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast over Cape York Peninsula and extending to the Gulf Country of Queensland during today, depending on the track of the Tropical Cyclone. Heavy rainfall could potentially lead to flash flooding in some areas.
Now that Tropical Cyclone Nora has crossed the coast and is moving inland, the threat from storm tides has reduced significantly. Higher than normal tides may still be experienced through today, especially around the time of the morning high tide, however these water levels are unlikely to exceed the normal highest astronomical tide (HAT) of the year.
– People in the path of the cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue.
– Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone – destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
– Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Police, Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.
People between Karumba and the NT/Qld border, including Mornington Island, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
– Information is available from your local government
– For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
– For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
|Time (AEST)||Intensity Category||Latitude
|0hr||4 am March 25||2||15.4S||141.7E||35|
|+6hr||10 am March 25||1||16.0S||141.7E||40|
|+12hr||4 pm March 25||1||16.5S||141.8E||65|
|+18hr||10 pm March 25||1||16.8S||141.9E||85|
|+24hr||4 am March 26||tropical low||17.0S||142.0E||110|
|+36hr||4 pm March 26||tropical low||17.1S||142.2E||145|
|+48hr||4 am March 27||tropical low||17.0S||142.4E||180|
|+60hr||4 pm March 27||tropical low||17.1S||141.9E||220|
|+72hr||4 am March 28||1||17.2S||139.8E||255|
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 2045 UTC 24/03/2018 Name: Tropical Cyclone Nora Identifier: 22U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 15.4S Longitude: 141.7E Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km] Movement Towards: south [169 deg] Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h] Central Pressure: 982 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km] Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km] Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km] Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km] Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km] Dvorak Intensity Code: over land Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km] FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +06: 25/0000: 16.0S 141.7E: 020 : 045 : 987 +12: 25/0600: 16.5S 141.8E: 035 : 040 : 992 +18: 25/1200: 16.8S 141.9E: 045 : 035 : 994 +24: 25/1800: 17.0S 142.0E: 060 : 030 : 996 +36: 26/0600: 17.1S 142.2E: 080 : 030 : 998 +48: 26/1800: 17.0S 142.4E: 100 : 030 : 998 +60: 27/0600: 17.1S 141.9E: 120 : 030 : 998 +72: 27/1800: 17.2S 139.8E: 135 : 035 : 996 +96: 28/1800: 17.8S 132.6E: 180 : 025 : 1004 +120: 29/1800: 18.9S 125.6E: 270 : 020 : 1008 REMARKS: Confidence in the location of the LLCC is fair, based on observations at Kowanyama and RADAR imagery. SSMI microwave imagery at 1700 UTC indicated the low level centre was located further west by 20 nautical miles straddling the coast. Recent satellite images indicate that Nora has weakened after moving over land. Cold cloud tops have warmed and contracted further south with reduced deep convection near the low level centre, indicating a displaced mid level circulation to the south. The equatorward upper flow has diminsihed considerably, while the poleward upper flow remains fairly good. Significant dry air has continued to move around the western flank to the northern side indicated by TPW imagery. Based on CIMMS analysis at 1800UTC, vertical wind shear remains in the 15-20 knot range. Dvorak analysis was not available as system is located over land now. Model guidance is largely in agreement that the environmental wind pattern will be tempered by the dry air and moderate shear, so continued weakening is expected. The possibility remains that Nora may travel south along the coast and still maintain a connection with the ocean. In this case, the intensity is likely to decay at a slower rate than one would expect from a system over land. A mid level ridge over the Coral Sea is becoming the dominating steering influence for Nora as it tracks to the south southeast away from the broadscale westerly flow through the Arafura Sea. A strong mid level ridge is building over central Australia as a mid-latitude/mid-level trough amplifies as it passes to the south over eastern Australia tonight and on Monday stalling the system, most likely over land over the southwest Cape York Peninsula. The trough moves east during Monday night allowing the mid level ridge to build eastwards. This will allow the system to move west as an easterly steering develops. Majority of model guidance move the system back into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday night under the influence of the easterly steering. Models differ from this point somewhat on how long the system will stay over water in the Gulf of Carpentaria and the likely path it may take. Movement will be dependent on the strength of the mid level ridge to the south and whether the steering will be from the east or southeast. Re-intensification is possible on Tuesday if the system remains over water. Overall environmental conditions remain favourable this week, with low to moderate shear in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria but the influence of dry air remains uncertain.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN Issued at 1926UTC 24 MARCH 2018 PLEASE BE AWARE Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Nora was centred within 20 nautical miles of latitude fifteen decimal four south (15.4S) longitude one hundred and forty one decimal seven east (141.7E) Recent movement : south at 10 knots Maximum winds : 55 knots Central pressure: 982 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant. FORECAST Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 1800 UTC 25 March. Winds above 48 knots within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 20 nautical miles in SE quadrant and within 25 nautical miles in SW quadrant and within 25 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough to high seas and moderate swell. Winds above 34 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate swell. Forecast positions At 0600 UTC 25 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 16.5 south 141.8 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 1800 UTC 25 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.0 south 142.0 east Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to email@example.com or fax to +6189203829 or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.